AA 2423 · PHX → SFO

departs 12:16 PM MT · arrives 1:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

73% chance · ±14 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
26%
15–30 min late
28%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2423 · PHX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?