AA 2441 · DFW → SAN

departs 2:33 PM CT · arrives 3:52 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

68% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
32%
15–30 min late
41%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2441 · DFW → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?