AA 3046 · ORD → SEA

departs 12:52 PM CT · arrives 3:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip0.12 in

SEA (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3046 · ORD → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?