AA 3111 · STL → ORD

departs 11:31 AM CT · arrives 12:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±9 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.59 in

ORD (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6.33333 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3111 · STL → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?