AA 3186 · ORD → LGA

took off 3:47 PM CT · landed 6:31 PM ET (scheduled 3:44 PM CT → 7:02 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LGA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.07 in

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3186 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late did it get to LGA?