AA 3225 · DFW → SAT

departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.34 in

SAT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.12 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3225 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?