AA 798 · PHX → SAT

departs 1:25 PM MT · arrives 4:45 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

38% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SAT that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 798 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?