AS 1396 · PDX → AUS

took off 11:24 AM PT · expected to land 4:36 PM CT (scheduled 11:14 AM PT → 5:01 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AUS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

PDX (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.63 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1396 · PDX → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?