Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

CHINA AIRLINES · FLIGHT CI 5301 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:30 AM ET, ETA 6:32 AM EST) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, November 3 Today

CI 5301 · JFK → YYZ

took off 5:30 AM ET · expected to land 6:32 AM EST (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Other factors

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CI 5301 · JFK → YYZ

Odds over time