MQ 3417 · AEX → DFW

took off 11:51 AM CT · expected to land 12:48 PM CT (scheduled 11:23 AM CT → 12:44 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
46%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at AEX that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AEX (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.95 in

DFW (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3417 · AEX → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?