MQ 3533 · DFW → ELP

took off 12:52 PM CT · expected to land 1:13 PM MT (scheduled 12:36 PM CT → 1:46 PM MT)

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ELP?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.43 in

ELP (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3533 · DFW → ELP

Odds over time

How late will it get to ELP?