MQ 3585 · EYW → ORD

took off 6:48 PM ET · landed 8:40 PM CT (scheduled 6:33 PM ET → 9:02 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at ORD that day

↑ EYW is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3585 · EYW → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?