MQ 3911 · IAH → DFW

took off 4:23 PM CT · expected to land 5:03 PM CT (scheduled 1:59 PM CT → 3:17 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +18 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
57%
Over 2 hours late
43%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.78 in

DFW (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.43 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3911 · IAH → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?