MQ 4098 · DFW → RIC

took off 7:39 AM CT · expected to land 10:59 AM ET (scheduled 7:16 AM CT → 11:22 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to RIC?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DFW that day

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.43 in

RIC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4098 · DFW → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?