MQ 4185 · ORD → SAW

took off 1:42 PM CT · landed 11:45 PM +03 (scheduled 1:27 PM CT → 11:49 PM +03)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at SAW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at SAW that day

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SAW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

SAW (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4185 · ORD → SAW

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAW?