Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 401 LANDED 2:24 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, November 3 Today

MX 401 · JAX → ORF

took off 1:04 AM ET · landed 2:24 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at ORF that day

Weather at each end

JAX (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip0.08 in

ORF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 401 · JAX → ORF

Odds over time