OO 4631 · SFO → SNA

departs 3:13 PM PT · arrives 4:54 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SNA?

On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

SNA (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4631 · SFO → SNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SNA?