OO 4931 · FSD → ORD

departs 12:12 PM CT · arrives 2:00 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at FSD that day

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ FSD is quiet at that time

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.12 in

ORD (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5.66667 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 4931 · FSD → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?