OO 5440 · SNA → SFO

departs 5:26 PM PT · arrives 7:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
21%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
19%
Cancelled
11%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 5440 · SNA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?