OO 6295 · FSD → PHX

departs 2:23 PM CT · arrives 4:21 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at FSD that day

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

FSD (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precip0.42 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 6295 · FSD → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?