PT 5816 · BDL → PHL

took off 7:15 PM ET · expected to land 8:02 PM ET (scheduled 7:02 PM ET → 8:26 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL

Weather at each end

BDL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5816 · BDL → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?