PT 6031 · PHL → ORF

took off 6:16 PM ET · expected to land 6:51 PM ET (scheduled 5:32 PM ET → 6:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

40% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORF?

LIVE

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
36%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ PHL is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 6031 · PHL → ORF

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORF?