QX 2311 · PSP → SFO

took off 7:28 PM PT · expected to land 8:40 PM PT (scheduled 4:47 PM PT → 6:33 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
91%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PSP

Weather at each end

PSP (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2311 · PSP → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?