QX 2415 · SFO → LAX

took off 10:30 PM PT · landed 11:22 PM PT (scheduled 10:02 PM PT → 11:31 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to LAX?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ 10pm departures from SFO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.06 in

LAX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

QX 2415 · SFO → LAX

Odds over time

How late did it get to LAX?