UA 1510 · DEN → SFO

departs 5:31 PM MT · arrives 7:25 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

69% chance · ±15 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
31%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
18%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DEN that day

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

SFO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1510 · DEN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?