UA 254 · RSW → EWR

departs 2:32 PM ET · arrives 5:37 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 733 ft forecast at RSW that day

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

RSW (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.29 in

EWR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 254 · RSW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?