UA 2732 · IAH → SAN

departs 4:18 PM CT · arrives 5:55 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.27 in

SAN (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2732 · IAH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?