UA 505 · MCO → SFO

departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 9:22 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

SFO (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.24 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 505 · MCO → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?