WN 1056 · BWI → MCO

took off 6:28 AM ET · expected to land 8:11 AM ET (scheduled 6:14 AM ET → 8:46 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCO that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ BWI is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1056 · BWI → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?