WN 1493 · MCO → PHL

departs 2:51 PM ET · arrives 5:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

53% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

PHL (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1493 · MCO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?