WN 1541 · DEN → LIT

took off 2:00 PM MT · expected to land 4:35 PM CT (scheduled 1:26 PM MT → 4:38 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIT?

LIVE

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at LIT that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into LIT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts32 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

LIT (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1541 · DEN → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?