WN 1724 · LAS → SJC

took off 9:56 AM PT · expected to land 11:01 AM PT (scheduled 9:31 AM PT → 11:12 AM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

2% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJC?

LIVE

On time or early
98%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1724 · LAS → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?