WN 1916 · SAT → MCO

took off 5:09 PM CT · landed 8:27 PM ET (scheduled 4:26 PM CT → 8:10 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

MCO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1916 · SAT → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?