WN 2049 · MDW → SMF

departs 9:58 AM CT · arrives 12:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 18h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling1,400 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precip0.11 in

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2049 · MDW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?