WN 2104 · DEN → SFO

departs 9:16 AM MT · arrives 10:59 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

77% chance · ±13 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
23%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
23%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2104 · DEN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?