WN 2257 · HOU → TPA

took off 5:26 PM CT · expected to land 8:16 PM ET (scheduled 2:37 PM CT → 5:59 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +25 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
99%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from HOU are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.69 in

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2257 · HOU → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?