WN 2766 · BWI → SFO

departs 10:37 AM ET · arrives 1:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

62% chance · ±11 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
25%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

BWI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2766 · BWI → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?