WN 3011 · PHX → HOU

departs 4:20 PM MT · arrives 7:56 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 22h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HOU (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3011 · PHX → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?