WN 3238 · OAK → SAN

departs 1:32 PM PT · arrives 3:08 PM PT

Your aircraft is N8539V (B738), coming in as WN 3174 from MDW: landed 12:51 PM PT.

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

70% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.18 in

SAN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3238 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?