WN 4111 · SRQ → STL

departs 6:06 AM ET · arrives 7:41 AM CT

Your aircraft is N8950L (B38M), coming in as WN 737 from BNA: landed 11:19 PM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SRQ are usually not late

Weather at each end

SRQ (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

STL (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4111 · SRQ → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?