WN 4156 · STL → LAS

departs 5:05 AM CT · arrives 6:31 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from STL are usually not late

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.59 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4156 · STL → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?