WN 4563 · MCO → STL

departs 3:58 PM ET · arrives 5:31 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8839Q (B38M), coming in as WN 31 from STL: landed 3:36 PM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from MCO are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling1,900 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4563 · MCO → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?