WN 457 · DSM → LAS

departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 1:11 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DSM (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.48 in

LAS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 457 · DSM → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?