WN 4600 · HOU → MSY

took off 4:50 PM CT · landed 5:38 PM CT (scheduled 2:42 PM CT → 4:02 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +34 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MSY?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from HOU are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.75 in

MSY (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8.66667 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4600 · HOU → MSY

Odds over time

How late did it get to MSY?