WN 4754 · PHX → SAT

departs 2:32 PM MT · arrives 5:48 PM CT

Your aircraft is N8655D (B738), coming in as WN 3286 from OMA: landed 11:50 AM MT.

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −23 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4754 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?