WN 4761 · STL → HOU

departs 8:27 AM CT · arrives 10:35 AM CT

Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at HOU more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HOU?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ HOU is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts28 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.69 in

HOU (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.31 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4761 · STL → HOU

Odds over time

How late will it get to HOU?