WN 498 · BNA → BUF

departs 12:23 PM CT · arrives 3:21 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BUF (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 498 · BNA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?