WN 648 · BNA → MDW

departs 5:37 AM CT · arrives 7:23 AM CT

Your aircraft is N8519R (B738), coming in as WN 4510 from LAS: landed 11:51 PM CT.

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

5% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at MDW that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from BNA are usually not late

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

MDW (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 648 · BNA → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?