YX 4386 · LGA → RDU

departs 1:35 PM ET · arrives 3:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4386 · LGA → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?