YX 4449 · JFK → IND

departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 6:02 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at IND more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IND?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IND at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IND (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceiling3,767 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4449 · JFK → IND

Odds over time

How late will it get to IND?